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Year to date performance

Crypto guys leaving 2025

🤖 In the trading tournament organized by [Aster](https://www.asterdex.com/en/campaigns/human-vs-ai), **the team of humans lost to the neural networks**. At the end of the competition, **the humans showed a result of -32.21% (a total loss of about $225,000)**, while the AI team only suffered a drawdown of -4.48% (about $13,000).

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❌ **Is the altcoin season being canceled?** From the [market review](https://x.com/wintermute_t/status/2003430814206263491) by market maker Wintermute – retail investors have started rotating out of altcoins back into BTC and ETH. Institutional investors have been steadily buying BTC and ETH since the summer. ➤ BTC dominance has been steadily increasing throughout the second half of the year. ➤ Altcoins are sinking under the weight of token unlocks. ➤ Capital is concentrating only in BTC and ETH. ➤ The market is in a sideways trend due to holidays and low liquidity. Conclusion: An altcoin season is possible, but not now. First, BTC needs to consolidate above and show strength. In the short term – a sideways trend and shocks from liquidations. In the medium term – institutional investors will ensure growth.

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**🎅**** Investors are now actively driving the "Santa Claus Rally" topic.** The "Santa Claus Rally" is an upward trend traditionally observed in the stock market at Christmas (the last 5 trading days of the year + the first 5 trading days of the new year).

💰 It's time to recall the tweet by **Michael Saylor**, who **exactly 12 years ago on this day "buried" Bitcoin, stating that "its days are numbered"**. Now, the balance of the company he owns, Strategy, holds **671,268 BTC** — this is the **largest public holder** of Bitcoin in the world.

it's 2am and everyone is asleep Crypto Guys when the market up +5% :

😕 2025 token launches have largely been disastrous. From 118 tracked TGE launches this year, comparing current FDV against opening levels: - 84.7% (100 out of 118) are trading below their initial TGE valuation - In other words, roughly 4 out of 5 launches are underwater compared to their opening value - The median token is down 71% in FDV and 67% in market cap since launch - Only 15% remain above their TGE valuation The takeaway: TGE is no longer “early.” Observers point out that these failures are primarily tied to limited token utility and inflated valuations.

Elon Musk has made history as the first person to **surpass a $600 billion** net worth, reaching an **estimated $677 billion **on December 15, 2025, fueled by SpaceX's latest tender offer valuing the company at $800 billion. This milestone coincides with SpaceX launching a competitive "bake-off" process to select investment banks as advisors for its anticipated 2026 initial public offering, potentially raising over $30 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation. Analysts project that a successful IPO could propel Musk's fortune beyond $950 billion, positioning him to **become the world's first trillionaire within the next year.**

Key Events This Week: 1. October Retail Sales Data – Tuesday  2. November Jobs Report – Tuesday  3. November CPI Inflation Data – Thursday  4. December Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Thursday  5. October PCE Inflation Data – Friday  6. November Existing Home Sales Data – Friday  7. MI Inflation Expectations Data – Friday  8. MI Consumer Sentiment Data – Friday  9. Five scheduled Fed speaker events  A significant backlog of economic data is set to be released this week. 

A Quiet Signal That Could Shake Global Markets The Bank of Japan is indicating the possibility of a rate hike next week. The decision is scheduled overnight between December 18 and 19, and markets are beginning to take notice. This would mark the first rate increase in 11 months. Rumors began about a week ago and have only grown stronger since. If rates are raised, markets are likely to move lower—though perhaps less sharply due to early front-running. There is a genuine chance this BoJ meeting becomes one of the most significant macroeconomic events of the month and a key driver of what follows.

**Performance in 2025:** 🔼**S&P 500:** 16.3% 🔼**Nasdaq:** 21.7% 🔼**Gold:** 60% 🔽 **Bitcoin:** -1% You can’t spell crypto without cry. 😓

🎞 YouTube will allow U.S. YouTubers to receive payouts in $PYUSD, integrating crypto into the platform with PayPal's current offerings. Blockchain adoption. ⚡️

My money was losing 7% per year because of inflation, so I decided to invest in crypto. Now I’m losing 50% per month.

Elon Musk is on the verge of making history: If SpaceX goes public at a $1.5 trillion valuation, his stake alone would be valued at $625 billion. This would raise his total net worth to an unprecedented $952 billion. According to Polymarket, there is currently a 67% probability that SpaceX’s IPO market capitalization will exceed $1 trillion. Elon Musk may soon become the first trillionaire in history. Innovation pays.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (12/10/2025): 1. The Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points, marking its third cut in 2025. 2. The Fed stated it will evaluate the "extension and timing" of further adjustments. 3. Treasury Bill purchases will commence on December 12. 4. The Fed plans to acquire $40 billion in Treasury Bills over a 30‑day period. 5. FOMC members Schmid and Goolsbee dissented, favoring no change. 6. The Fed indicated that rate cuts may be paused for now. Fed Chair Powell may be halting rate reductions once again.

Reports indicate that Elon Musk’s **SpaceX** is preparing for an **IPO** in 2026, expected to raise $30 billion and value the company at **$1.5 trillion**. If completed, this would mark the **largest IPO in history**.

CZ forecasts that the cryptocurrency market may experience a supercycle starting in 2026, driven by U.S. political factors, Fed rate cuts, and growing institutional adoption. Better idea: send CZ back to jail and start the supercycle now.